Written by Massimo Nicolazzi (from " Limesonline )
For years there with the least balance of needs. Assured that they need money for pensions as we oil and gas to warm and moving. The 'oil weapon "and the nightmare of the invention are energy security, and almost plot, diplomats and newspapers. The organ (it) creates the function. A
eye, you should brings back the same for the If Libya. Closes the Green Stream, and you block a flow of more than 20 million cubic meters of gas per day.
Problems?
In reality 'is that the volume is less a piece of oversupply that has' killed the market for the wonderful combination of a crisis that has contracted the Italian consumption of natural gas and the launch of new infrastructures (LNG terminal Rovigo, increased capacity 'of the import pipeline from Algeria, Libya and Russia) to have simultaneously increased the availability'. He had become a classic market demand And now suddenly disappeared more than 20 million imported gas under the take or pay. Between operators is toast.
Says Oh well, 'but when we followed by an increase consumption? With the spectacle that we have with the leader that there is '(still), there' is a risk that those who come after us removed from our list of customers. And according to those who come after you doing? Turn the tube? The pipeline infrastructure are rigid. The Green Stream and the alternative 'to bring gas in from Italy or keep it blank (in fact). And I think that what comes after, whoever he is, keeps it empty? At full capacity 'and values \u200b\u200bof what passes today for the tube in a year that is commercially a 2 / 3 billion. Call when you find one which makes it less.
Yes 'but with oil and' different. The infrastructure and ' flexible enough that there is water below the ship and moves it where you want. And roughly one quarter of our oil comes from there '. What do we do if we instead send him to Turkey?
Simple. We buy from the Turks. In 1973 the OPEC embargar American and Dutch boys. And they began to buy from non-embargo. "The world market, like the World Ocean, is one great pool" (Adelman). If the world produces less, the supply contracts, and can 'be a problem. If you continue to produce, if everyone who wants to sell it then, that life does not change. Eventually (perhaps with a few unnecessary turbulence path and some additional cost) will end 'always (re) distributed between those who demand. For your own safety contact your energy GDP, and your diplomacy.
says yes', but let's not forget that a piece of our refining system with Libya from 'the best of'. That there is "the" crude. There are endless 'of "crude" to various degrees API, acidity', paraffinic content and more. Each refinery (simplification) and '"calibrated" to certain specifications. And some of our refineries with the characteristics of Libyan crude oil (and in particular with the production of Bu Attifel) we go to a wedding. So what? This does not mean that if Libya does not reach the ends, but only in the case which affected search crude on the market with features that go there next. Some difficolta'e maybe some tension on refining but 'if you like the nightmares go elsewhere.
So even if the new Libya will turn against us (but 'cause it should?) Sfangare we can succeed. The damage Italy would not be hypothetically the crisis of our supplies, but just that Eni, which can not 'leave the field even with a smile on their assets in Libya. But even this, speculating that the new Libya (that does not exist ') likes some foreign investment scenario seems more' or remotely.
Sin brings back here. Pero 'time I can not to yawn for concern. This time there '(even) more. Across North Africa in turmoil. And a piece of Arabia Felix to follow.
years of schemes that are here and now 'and dropping the' changed his life, and also its quality '. I started to travel from Cairo to oil "was" the pyramids. And now the pyramids are "in" Cairo. Algiers and 'extended everywhere. The other followed the model.
population growth. And even more 'urban growth. And the end or near agriculture. And never start another job. And it's not exactly great models of social attention, and indeed so many that for some, the madrassa becomes the only place of support and solidarity ', as well as education.
the satrap and 'failed for decades to keep the lid on the pot, even if they had using the oil revenues as pannicello served hot in the guise of welfare. To us, for decades, and 'successful and very well nemmanco see the pot, it would just use your eyes, and now wander between surprise and concern (for us).
balance the needs with the satrap it worked fine. The satrap has something to lose. Can 'use the oil to give the bread that without his power and his own person to be at risk. The oil revenue consensus or at least buy soothes the tumult, and (of regola) contribuisceanche e rilevantemente alle fortune del satrapo e del suo clan. Figurati se mai smette di vendere.
Chi verra’ dopo non sappiamo. Ma sappiamo che dovra’ dare rappresentanza politica alla disperazione araba nata dalle e nelle conurbazioni. Potrebbe, almeno transitoriamente, sentire di non avere niente da perdere. Che l’orgoglio e l’identita’ della nazione sono piu’ importanti delle pensioni, che tanto e comunque la rendita da sola non ce la fa a pagarle.
E’ con questa disperazione, insieme colta e lucida, che ci tocchera’ di fare i conti. E, sperabilmente, di cooperare. Possibilmente senza spocchia e buttando nel cestino lo scontro di civilta’. Siamo gia’ were fools enough to dig dimples and ditches to prevent the entry of Turkey into the European Union. And now, the irony of history, we are almost to pray outcome "turkish" upheaval of North Africa, and that (much) better than the Ottoman imam.
Careful, now, to tend to the ear that moves. And not to build valleys in the Mediterranean. If we delude ourselves to be able to close the desperation in the fence of his country, feed the imbalance. Needs.
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