They approach the primaries and as usual hazard a prediction. The attempt Scalfari to be drawn from the middle Marino (not exclusively because of an advantage for Franceshini) seems to me failed. Judging from what you see Marino could also exploit a totalizing more than 20-25%. Since it was there all the people 'radical', at different latitudes: civil, social, moderate and extreme. In summary, the backbone of the intellectualized middle-class urban (north), and the case grillizzata dipietrizzata, with the blog in your hand and often full of torment moralism, and even vaguely League (as typical of those who are bearers of a ' absolute ethics where conditions permit to do so with the least cost ....). In short, a veltroni dipietrizzato and aggressive, which could aver scavato voragini sotto ai piedi di Franceschini. Bersani ha seguito il suo corso, senza scartare. Al sud le filièeres personalizzate potrebbero favorirlo in guisa ancora maggiore che fra gli iscritti. In Emilia-Romagna, a mio parere, avrà un risultato ottimo, perché Bersani è più popolare fra la gente (un emiliano doc) di quanto lo sia entro il partito. Se ciò accadrà anche il Bonacini (che non mi sembra niente male, un giovane volitivo sintonico alla parlata emiliana) ne trarrà beneficio per trascinamento minimizzando le speranze della Bastico. In sintesi vedo, per il Lunedì di conto, un Bersani a cavallo del 50 %, con Marino che insidia Franceschini. Queste primarie dovrebbero mettere in ancora maggior risalto una fracture already visible among the members Bersani on the one hand, the other Marine, with Franceschini in a space between relatively small (all that remains of mediation conducted by Veltroni during their mandate). Ie: on the one hand, a mixture of working class represented by the historic network of the left hand and the middle classes intellectualized 'reflexive' (actually radicalized). Really have in hand the destiny of the Democratic Party means finding the glue between these two souls, or an effective mediation. Choose Bersani mean to shift the focus of mediation for the benefit of the first component, and vice versa. For this I am in favor of Bersani, as I argued in countless speeches. As the middle classes are essential politicized in the stratification of the Left, their total hegemony would be intolerable and would cut all ties with a popular base in the suburbs that has already eroded land. It remains to clarify the flow of voters. It should be easy to predict the excess of two million (2 million and a half I would say). Meanwhile, every member will drag the Democratic Party at least two. Then there will be an additional part mobilized by two stimuli: a signal to Berlusconi, a sign of life identity of the left. Perhaps the first stimulus will play for the benefit of Marino and Franceschini. The second, however, should support Bersani. The extent to which the two ingredients will mix will depend anche l’esito (come entità, se non come tendenza) della competizione.
