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Dear Nuclear

Two tasty news about nuclear energy: the first, readable here, concerns the decision of the jury for Advertising Self-Regulation, which said the ad misleading the Nuclear Forum Italian, by blocking seven days spread. It was evident that there were two chess players, but only one winner, the wealthy interest groups that finance the initiative. It 's also a little personal satisfaction because, as I told a few days ago, they censored my comments about the real scale of the resources of uranium.

The second piece of news, much more serious, concerns the substantial failure of the EPR design, which some countries, including Italy, want to revive the use of nuclear energy. The only two stations in an advanced state of construction, in Finland and France, not only are accumulating delays in relation to the timing of completion, but most are seeing the anticipated costs grow dramatically. Currently, more than double the expected and the end of the work could even quadruple. And 'what we read in this very interesting and detailed report by Professor Steve Thomas of Greenwich University - London, translated into Italian by Domenico web Aspoitalia Coiante and Claudio Della Volpe.

It 's a further confirmation of what we have been saying for some time (eg here and here ), that the Italian nuclear program could only be achieved with the help of the State directly or by putting his hands in his pockets Italians, through an adjustment of electricity tariffs.

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ask U.S. for home, work and income

28 / 2 / 2011

This morning at the event issued by the "Committee against the crisis: home, work, family and Italian migrant workers chose to stay together, united by the realization that the institutionalized racism, policies of exclusion, exploitation of labor rights violations are pieces of a 'unique strategy of repression that affects all precarious every life.

During the two hours of garrison, a delegation of the Committee attended the meeting of the Council for the house of the Municipality of Ancona to make it clear to the participants at the table that the situation is increasingly desperate, many families can no longer pay rent and bills, it is increasingly difficult to shop and many are afraid of losing their children because the lack of social services work can take them away.

Again no concrete response by the city, unable to find a solution that will meet the needs of migrant families: there are no private homes available, there There are no funds for the renovation of empty dwellings and even to do maintenance work in public housing. The reason again is cheap, you look at the numbers rather than people in the face.

There it was realized that the climate has changed, that immigrants are now calling for a strong and united all, undermine an income to survive, because their work is not there. They want to change the immigration law, to release the renewal of a residence permit from the employment contract and casa.Tanti just under the blackmail of the renewal of residence permit, continued to work for free for months in order to keep a contract. Others assert
who have paid contributions for years to INPS because instead of living on the street, they prefer to return to the country of origin with the money they paid for their contributions.

all demand to be recognized as citizens of Ancona.

The migrants told personal stories, no more stories of flight from the countries of origin but Italian stories. Stories of people who arrived in Ancona in the Marche region and more than twenty years, who can no longer pay the rent, which receive reminders of payments for water, electricity and gas bills, people who are not satisfied with the expenditure provided by social services stories of sacrifices made by the dream of starting a family.

The Committee was not entirely satisfied But from the meeting this morning and will meet on Wednesday, March 2 at 21.00 at the Embassy of the Rights of Ancona (via Urbino 18) to decide the next steps .

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The numbers of foreign energy dependence Italian

supplement to the previous, an interesting article by Massimo Nicolazzi, I would like to add some considerations numbers on the Italian energy vulnerability that maybe can help you better understand the relationship with the current tense situation in the north of Africa.

First, note that the gross consumption of primary energy of our country in 2009 depended for 40, 64% from petroleum, natural gas 35.43%, total more than 76%. If you include coal, our dependence on fossil fuels is approaching 85%.

transport depends on oil for 94% and account for 64.1% of the final consumption of oil.

the Italian electricity production, which represents about 35% of gross domestic energy primary, oil now accounts for less than 5%, while natural gas for about 45%.

The final sales of natural gas to about 31.5% of the electricity generating sector, the industry 28.6%, 31.2% in the household, 8, 7%, trade and services .

In the first chart above, I put in order the Petroleum Exporting Countries to Italy and the respective percentages. In the second graph I did the same thing with regard to natural gas.

Finally, I conclude with an instructive curiosity in the third graph, which represents the domestic production of natural gas (currently about 10% of total consumption). Even we had our peak in 1994.

As usual, all the graphics you can enlarge by clicking on it.

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Balance needs

Written by Massimo Nicolazzi
(from " Limesonline )

For years there with the least balance of needs. Assured that they need money for pensions as we oil and gas to warm and moving. The 'oil weapon "and the nightmare of the invention are energy security, and almost plot, diplomats and newspapers. The organ (it) creates the function. A

eye, you should brings back the same for the If Libya. Closes the Green Stream, and you block a flow of more than 20 million cubic meters of gas per day.

Problems?

In reality 'is that the volume is less a piece of oversupply that has' killed the market for the wonderful combination of a crisis that has contracted the Italian consumption of natural gas and the launch of new infrastructures (LNG terminal Rovigo, increased capacity 'of the import pipeline from Algeria, Libya and Russia) to have simultaneously increased the availability'. He had become a classic market demand And now suddenly disappeared more than 20 million imported gas under the take or pay. Between operators is toast.

Says Oh well, 'but when we followed by an increase consumption? With the spectacle that we have with the leader that there is '(still), there' is a risk that those who come after us removed from our list of customers. And according to those who come after you doing? Turn the tube? The pipeline infrastructure are rigid. The Green Stream and the alternative 'to bring gas in from Italy or keep it blank (in fact). And I think that what comes after, whoever he is, keeps it empty? At full capacity 'and values \u200b\u200bof what passes today for the tube in a year that is commercially a 2 / 3 billion. Call when you find one which makes it less.

Yes 'but with oil and' different. The infrastructure and ' flexible enough that there is water below the ship and moves it where you want. And roughly one quarter of our oil comes from there '. What do we do if we instead send him to Turkey?

Simple. We buy from the Turks. In 1973 the OPEC embargar American and Dutch boys. And they began to buy from non-embargo. "The world market, like the World Ocean, is one great pool" (Adelman). If the world produces less, the supply contracts, and can 'be a problem. If you continue to produce, if everyone who wants to sell it then, that life does not change. Eventually (perhaps with a few unnecessary turbulence path and some additional cost) will end 'always (re) distributed between those who demand. For your own safety contact your energy GDP, and your diplomacy.

says yes', but let's not forget that a piece of our refining system with Libya from 'the best of'. That there is "the" crude. There are endless 'of "crude" to various degrees API, acidity', paraffinic content and more. Each refinery (simplification) and '"calibrated" to certain specifications. And some of our refineries with the characteristics of Libyan crude oil (and in particular with the production of Bu Attifel) we go to a wedding. So what? This does not mean that if Libya does not reach the ends, but only in the case which affected search crude on the market with features that go there next. Some difficolta'e maybe some tension on refining but 'if you like the nightmares go elsewhere.

So even if the new Libya will turn against us (but 'cause it should?) Sfangare we can succeed. The damage Italy would not be hypothetically the crisis of our supplies, but just that Eni, which can not 'leave the field even with a smile on their assets in Libya. But even this, speculating that the new Libya (that does not exist ') likes some foreign investment scenario seems more' or remotely.

Sin brings back here. Pero 'time I can not to yawn for concern. This time there '(even) more. Across North Africa in turmoil. And a piece of Arabia Felix to follow.

years of schemes that are here and now 'and dropping the' changed his life, and also its quality '. I started to travel from Cairo to oil "was" the pyramids. And now the pyramids are "in" Cairo. Algiers and 'extended everywhere. The other followed the model.

population growth. And even more 'urban growth. And the end or near agriculture. And never start another job. And it's not exactly great models of social attention, and indeed so many that for some, the madrassa becomes the only place of support and solidarity ', as well as education.

the satrap and 'failed for decades to keep the lid on the pot, even if they had using the oil revenues as pannicello served hot in the guise of welfare. To us, for decades, and 'successful and very well nemmanco see the pot, it would just use your eyes, and now wander between surprise and concern (for us).

balance the needs with the satrap it worked fine. The satrap has something to lose. Can 'use the oil to give the bread that without his power and his own person to be at risk. The oil revenue consensus or at least buy soothes the tumult, and (of regola) contribuisceanche e rilevantemente alle fortune del satrapo e del suo clan. Figurati se mai smette di vendere.

Chi verra’ dopo non sappiamo. Ma sappiamo che dovra’ dare rappresentanza politica alla disperazione araba nata dalle e nelle conurbazioni. Potrebbe, almeno transitoriamente, sentire di non avere niente da perdere. Che l’orgoglio e l’identita’ della nazione sono piu’ importanti delle pensioni, che tanto e comunque la rendita da sola non ce la fa a pagarle.

E’ con questa disperazione, insieme colta e lucida, che ci tocchera’ di fare i conti. E, sperabilmente, di cooperare. Possibilmente senza spocchia e buttando nel cestino lo scontro di civilta’. Siamo gia’ were fools enough to dig dimples and ditches to prevent the entry of Turkey into the European Union. And now, the irony of history, we are almost to pray outcome "turkish" upheaval of North Africa, and that (much) better than the Ottoman imam.

Careful, now, to tend to the ear that moves. And not to build valleys in the Mediterranean. If we delude ourselves to be able to close the desperation in the fence of his country, feed the imbalance. Needs.

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scenarios of the International Energy

was recently presented the latest World Energy Outlook (WEO 2010), the document prepared annually by the Agency International Energy Agency (IEA), which forecasts energy of the authoritative international body. To address this you can see a summary of the document.

WEO 2010 contains three projected energy scenarios to 2035: the current political scenario, which assumes the absence of changes to policies in force in 2010, the New Policy Scenario, which considers an implementation of the commitments made to moderate various ways by different countries for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, Scenario 450, consistent with the non-binding target, given at the Copenhagen summit to limit the rise in global atmospheric temperature within two degrees Celsius due to the reduction of greenhouse gas concentrations at about 450 parts per million.

New Political Scenario, global primary energy demand increases by 36% in 2035, from 12,300 to 16,700 Mtoe Mtoe. This corresponds to an average annual growth rate of 1, 2%, while in the political scene today that rate is 1, 4% and in Scenario 450 down 0.7%.

look at some elements of the relationship that I consider most important.
First, look at the attached graph in the first forecast of oil production in the New Political Scenario (the one considered most likely). We find several interesting things: the conventional oil prodotto dai giacimenti esistenti ha piccato nel 2008 ed è in declino irreversibile, quello ancora sviluppabile dai giacimenti esistenti o in nuovi giacimenti da trovare consentirebbe di mantenere un plateau di picco fino al 2035. La domanda mondiale in espansione, sarebbe assicurata solo grazie alla crescita produttiva di gas naturale liquefatto e di petrolio non convenzionale (sabbie bituminose, greggio extra pesante, ecc.).

Cosa dire? Finalmente AIE ammette apertamente l’esistenza e l’ineluttabilità del picco petrolifero, dando indirettamente ragione ad ASPO, fa assegnamento sulla scoperta molto improbabile di grandi giacimenti di nuovo petrolio nei prossimi anni e sull’i ncremento produttivo the unconventional (by their own admission restricted by the very high extraction costs) to meet the growing energy thirst of the planet.

Paragraph shared the 2010 WEO, however, is entitled: "Peak oil, choice or fate?, Which envisages the active management of peak production through policies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases contained in the Scenario 450 focused on the development of renewable and energy efficiency (see second attached graph). In this way, you might plan a controlled reduction of world oil production while avoiding the social and economic shocks inevitably linked to the current political scenario (Business AS Usual).

Ma siccome la maggior parte degli usi petroliferi riguarda il settore dei trasporti, lo Scenario 450 individua nella parziale riconversione del parco autoveicolare mondiale al motore elettrico, totale e ibrido plug-in, il principale strumento di attuazione degli obiettivi di riduzione delle emissioni (obiettivo sintetizzato nell’ultimo grafico allegato).
Beati loro che ci credono. Come ho avuto modo di evidenziare più volte su questo blog, anche se il mercato mondiale dell’auto si orientasse decisamente verso i modelli elettrici, ed è tutto da dimostrare, il modello di mobilità individuale di massa a cui siamo abituati è incompatibile con l’uso razionale delle risorse e with the requirements of an ecologically sustainable society based on stationary economy.

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slight recovery in electricity consumption in 2010

Terna The provisional figures for 2010 show a slight recovery in demand for electricity (final consumption + network losses) Italian than in 2009, the year which saw a historic drop in consumption, described in my previous article. This relative growth has allowed the recovery of less than one third of the decline recorded in 2009 and is definitely related to the modest economic recovery that has characterized our country in 2010 because, as is known, the consumption of electricity are very sensitive to economic dynamics . The graph allows us to effectively display the historical trend of this indicator. For the record, it is worth mentioning that in January 2011, the value of the demand for electricity decreased by 0.6% over the same month of 2010, thus confirming the instability and weakness of Italian economic recovery. The cases were identified several times in the fierce international competition from emerging countries, the lack of innovation and research of Italian firms, inefficiency of public administration, etc.. No analysis, however, consider the energy factor, which has been taken as the independent variable of the economic system. Oil prices have influenced the recent crisis and economic, as is well known to readers of this blog, heavily influencing the future development of the economy, as it is closely related to the dynamics of supply and demand in a situation of peak resource.

finally indicated, the data always Terna 2010, the strong performance of renewables. The wind has reached a production of 8374 GWh 1600 GWh and photovoltaics, largely offsetting the slight decline in hydroelectric production nationally.

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A specter is haunting Italy, guided trolley bus bound

few years, some Italian cities have realized (in the photo Padua, Venice) or are planning, public transport lines using a new means of transport, improperly called "tram road". Like all specialists know, the real tram does not use the tires as the bus, or trolley, but it has steel wheels that move on two tracks also in steel, due to a power supply from the aviation network. This difference is not nominal, but substantive and structural, because it determines significant differences in performance in terms of energy, economic and management for the tram (the reasons I've written here , here and here ).

The so-called "tram road" is however, more properly, a guided trolley bus bound "(FGV), because as the trolley, has rubber wheels and is powered electrically by a network airline, but differs from the trolley (which moves freely on the road) for a single track road that serves to move the middle, but has only one function stabilization, in order to save space and increase the length of vehicles.
This is an experimental technology, with very few achievements in Europe and worldwide, who are showing a lot of technical problems and management. But some Italian cities, with the enthusiasm typical of the neophytes, are throwing surface on an adventure with an uncertain outcome, lured by the illusory promise of lower development costs compared to traditional tram.

In this exciting international event Andrea Spinosa web Cityrailways on Road Transport Systems via wizard, you can realize the state of the art of this new technology. In France, I remember, has already made 37 systems modern low-floor tram and has planned for the next 29 more years, we have only 3 (three) lines of FGV. In all three construction costs are significantly increased compared to those budgeted. Projects FGV of Caen and Nancy, after innumerable hardships and problems of various kinds, were partly abandoned or subject to second thoughts. The line currently operating in Clermont Ferrand (As Translhor), has seen costs rise (21 million euro per kilometer) to exceed those of a conventional tram (15-20 million euro per kilometer) in order to resolve or alleviate structural problems such as the risk of derailment , the continuous wear of the road surface and tire, the uncertainty in food, etc..

The city of Paris and Le Mans years ago had initially considered this technology, but after careful analysis had abandoned it in favor of conventional tram for the following reasons, in my opinion, remain the main exclude this choice today: • The FGV is

a vehicle seemed noisy and less comfortable than the tram;
• FGV occupies the site of 7 meters while the tram can take 6;
• With the tram you can save money by making race the building while the FGV are effectively monopoly respective manufacturers;
• tram rail system is a widely experienced, high performing and reliable
• tram rail is evolving everywhere towards more efficient tram-train system impossible for FGV (road) .

At these points, we should then add the increased capacity of the trams (also because of the modularity achieved with the addition of other coaches during peak hours) and the fact that unlike the trams, the type of rail FGV effectively preclude the simultaneous movement of bicycles and must be placed a ban on bicycles along the line of FGV (that's what's happening in Padua). In addition, experiments are being advanced in the world new technological developments on modern tram that eliminate the energy supply from the air network, thus further reduce costs and improve performance.
excluding a couple of FGV which were introduced in China, no other country in the world (including the country's leading public transport such as Germany, Holland, Austria, Switzerland) has dreamed of taking consider this technology.

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Censorship Forum Nuclear

warned me not to trust the initiative that has created the website "Nuclear Forum, launched with great deployment of resources and ads, according to its promoters, to compare different positions on all 'idea of \u200b\u200bbuilding new nuclear power plants in Italy.
But I always start from a presumption of good faith as my interlocutors, so, reading a comment on that site very unattractive Chicco Testa uranifere global abundance of resources, I sent as a representative of the Scientific Committee Aspoitalia, a negative opinion .

Well, our friends nuclearists censor and how, when the arguments against nuclear power are solid and do not know what to reply. So did not publish my comment and I got further confirmation of the nature of part of the initiative.
However, our blog is also really open to discussion on the issue of nuclear power, then we publish below both the arguments that my Chicco Testa, so you can compare them.

CHICCO TESTA :

Several comments opposed to nuclear energy are motivated by a shortage of uranium, its possible fluctuations of prices and dependence on Italy, devoid of such mineral deposits from foreign producers. The concern is legitimate but unfounded for several reasons.

1. The cost of uranium accounts for only about 3% on the final price of electricity. So the uranium price fluctuations have a marginal influence on the price of kilowatt-hours (unlike what happens with gas).

2. The economically viable deposits of uranium are quite common, equally distributed around the globe. The offer is fragmented among several producers, most of which are located in countries with low geopolitical risk. The main producers are: Australia (which holds about a third of world reserves), Kazakhstan, Russia and Canada (which is almost equally divided the other third). The rest is distributed between South Africa, Namibia, Brazil, Niger, USA, China, Jordan and Uzbekistan.

3. The uranium reserves are increasing and have reached 6.3 million tons according to the latest version (2009), Red Book, the OECD report considered the bible of the nuclear fuel. Only with the findings and marketable at market prices, taking into account the current consumption rates (68mila tons per year) will cover the next 80 years: security of supply than normally provided for any other mineral. However, the world's uranium resources are far greater. The deposits known but not exploited today because it is not profitable enough to increase the stock of additional 5.5 million tonnes. That would bring security of supply in 160 years, more than enough even in the OECD scenario of maximum development of civilian nuclear energy (which includes a generous doubling of the reactors attivientro 2035). Besides we must consider the non-conventional deposits (for example, deposits of phosphates and phosphorus) which - according to the Red Book would add another 22 million tonnes available for exploitation, tripling the proven reserves.

4. The future scenario of global demand for nuclear fuel could change substantially in coming decades. In 2009, demand was covered for 76% of mineral resources, the rest is recycled uranium (MOX fuel by reprocessing) or disposal of the nuclear weapons arsenals of the Soviets and Americans. Looking ahead, the spread of fast-breeder reactors and advancement of technologies for reprocessing, could lead to less exploitation of mineral resources.

TERENZIO LONGOBARDI :

Al NUCLEAR FORUM

Gentile editorial

appreciate your attempt to compare various positions on the relaunch of nuclear energy in Italy. In the opinion of our association is a very risky choice on the industrial level for various reasons, but the principal is the availability of uranium Mineral.

In this connection, on your forum, in a few lines reassuring answer to the question: "The uranium stocks will run out quickly? In addition, Chicco Testa wrote an article titled "Uranium has really borrowed time?" Fairly generic and superficial on the subject, so I think of having to send the following summary remarks.

Even with reference to data on global uranium resources certified by the NEA (Nuclear Energy Agency), very questionable for the method of reporting and verification rather anecdotal (see articles by Michael Dittmar in the bibliography), the prospects of life fissile fuel for to power plants as well as those currently active third-generation construction, and possibly in future fourth generation of those appear to be very limited.

As demonstrated by the following graph produced by EWG (Energy Watch Group), elaborated from their data NEA that provides a "peak" of production followed by a gradual decay of uranium, can be reached the following conclusions :

1) Currently, global demand of 67,000 tonnes of uranium a year, is met only 42,000 tons (about 63%) from new mine production, the other 25,000 tons (about 37%) are obtained by storage accumulated before 1980 have become available in part through the process of nuclear disarmament. These stocks, according to EWG, will last only ten years. Period which can stretch only a few years thanks to the new availability resulting from the dismantling of nuclear warheads 7,500 more expected by the recent agreement Salt 2 signed between the U.S. and Russia. However if in the meantime, the mine production will not be significantly increased, there will be serious problems with food for just over a decade, the existing nuclear power plants. Include those not yet built.

2) Comparing the scenarios then extraction of the NEA and the Energy Agency 's Energy International, a peak is detected production of about 2015 for the resources with extraction costs reasonably ascertained under $ 40 per kilogram, around 2025 for those under $ 130 per kilogram, around 2035 for the ultra-optimistic assumptions of resources reasonably estimated proven plus Resources Low level of confidence (with extraction costs below 130 $ / kg). In this context, the scenario of expanding production of nuclear energy "minimum" envisaged in the IEA's WEO 2006 intersects the curve of uranium production almost at the peak of the hypothesis mining more optimistic scenario ever "maximum", which corresponds the prospects for growth envisaged in the nuclear programs of the various governments. In other words, the maximum development of nuclear power would be expected in any case incompatible with the availability of uranium, the minimum growth would be hopelessly blocked near the peak of the resource and the operation of only plants that exist today would be in crisis long before the mid-century.

Thus, the hypothesis of duration centennial of mineral resources uranifere proposed by NEA and shooting in Italy by ENEA, is believed to deceptive and unfounded for the following reasons:

1) The simplified calculation method adopted to establish this hypothesis , ie by dividing the total amount of uranium is still available for the annual consumption is by no means reliable because it divorced from the real dynamics of depletion of mineral resources and fossil described by the Hubbert model (peak and subsequent decline), now considered to be the most reliable international scientific to describe these dynamics.
2) also uses the same simplified method for NEA to calculate the duration of mineral resources, gives around 80 years. That is, the NEA has approximately 20 years duration of the resources defined by it.
3) The calculation assumes the NEA for the coming years from nuclear energy production steady at its present level, without considering the assumptions that it hoped to expand production.
4) In the calculation carried out by NEA to determine the duration of Uranium resources are included not only those reasonably tested, but also those spaces which it establishes itself poorly reliable.
5) In conclusion, even taking their wrong model of resource depletion and correcting trivial errors described above, actually results in a duration of probable resources of approximately 30 to 40 years, as can be seen from the table below Synthesis (in red the most probable hypothesis, the hypothesis in green NEA).

The conclusions concerning the duration of world uranium resources previously synthesized, would not be substantially altered if one were to assume the full productive potential of uranium enriched obtainable with the use of technology driven recovery of fissile uranium, pull through a difficult and costly operation uranium "depleted" available.

In any event, whether it takes the pattern of depletion of uranium resources studio Energy Watch Group, is very inaccurate method of calculating the NEA, and considering the time of production is not sure about a program to build nuclear power plants, in all probability the new installations would begin to have serious problems of supply of uranium to about half of their life cycle.

Finally, there are two other reasons that make it unwise to plan on the nuclear option in our country.

The high cost of production of this energy source in recent decades have discouraged industrial investment, while the few plants under construction see considerably increases the cost of construction compared with budgeted. In fact, in terms of cost, investment in the nuclear WOULD BE standing today only thanks to generous government subsidies, which inevitably would eventually weigh on public finances increasingly bloodless or bills of consumers, creating a heavy distortion of competition compared to other energy sources.

The power of the Italian power plants exist, and those under construction or already approved in Italy, is abundantly able to meet the needs of Italian electricity for decades to come, whereas it is very unlikely to lead to a sharp reversal of perspective compared to the sharp drop in electricity consumption caused by the economic crisis (- 6.8% in 2009 ). In fact, the reduced availability of oil will occur in the coming years after passing the peak of production (also recently acknowledged by the Pentagon and the American Energy Agency), will lead to new tensions in international oil prices that will surely have recessionary effects on 'depressive effects on the economy and energy consumption. A strong impetus to the use of renewable sources, coupled with the strategic choice of natural gas as a source of transition, in a context of diversification of supply, will make it possible to give appropriate responses to a scenario of steady or slightly growing consumption.

We therefore hope that you will reflect carefully on the objective limits of an industrial nature which impede the building program of new nuclear plants in our country, instead of devoting resources and investments in research and development on renewables, the only ones capable of ensuring a supply and safe energy indefinitely.

Insights:

The Oil Drum - The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction - Part III: How (un) reliable are the Red Book Uranium Resource Data? http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5744

Marco Pagani - The curious history of French uranium reserves http://ecoalfabeta.blogosfere.it/2008/06/la-curiosa-storia-delle-riserve- of uranium-francese.html

IEA - World Energy Outlook 2006 http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/2006.asp

Energy Watch Group - Uranium Report
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Reports.24 + M5d637b1e38d.0.html

Terenzio Longobardi - Uranium resources. Chronicle of a midsummer night. http://www.aspoitalia.it/archivio-articoli/259-le-risorse-di-uranio-cronaca-di-una-notte-di-mezza-estate

Michael Dittmar - The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction Chapter I: Nuclear Fission Energy Today
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0908/0908.0627v1.pdf

Michael Dittmar - The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction Chapter III: How (un) reliable are the Red Data Book Uranium Resource?
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0909/0909.1421v1.pdf

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The Club of Rome on the peak Attila

Snapshot from the recent film about peak oil by the Club Rome

The Club of Rome we remember for being the sponsor of the study known in Italy as "The Limits to Growth," in 1972. The study was a tremendous shock in the certainties of the time. It was such an impact that some lobby decided to condemn it in the late 1980s, using classic propaganda treatments that were then already been developed for the tobacco industry.

phase of demonization of "The Limits to Growth" seems to have run out. After a period in which the Club of Rome had kept a very low profile, is now returning to advocate the ideas that made him famous in the past.

Thus, we see appear on the site of the Club of Rome, a movie dedicated to peak oil. You can see here .

The result is ... Well, in fact. We say that recounts as they are, however, is a debilitating whining (*). E 'told by a voice that seems to be that the answering machine. The text is woody and heavy sounds like a college class for adults. And the animations are not very informative. So, be content, but you could do better.

Fortunately, the Club of Rome is not limited to these movies - another thing that is coming out is a complete revision of the study "The Limits to Growth" which tells the history of the study, its critics, its supporters and its relevance to the present day. The publisher is Springer, the author of a Ugo Bardi; boh .... who knows what will it say?


______________________________________________


(*) I was reminded of something you read many years ago about "Urania," when they gathered stories from readers. These were selected by "Ipnotrapezi" creatures who had an "index of lagnoresistenza" very low and fell asleep almost immediately for most of the stories submitted.

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oil and survivalist American

Prisco (the one with the white beard), Byzantine diplomat who visited the court of Attila in the fifth century. Mór Than's painting (from Wikipedia)

Prisco, Byzantine diplomat, has left us a very interesting report of the court of Attila in the fifth century. One of the details of his account when it happens to meet a greek - like himself - who had left the imperial territory to settle among the Huns.

It follows a brief discussion in which the fugitive, greek exposes the benefits of freedom among the barbarians away from the injustice of the empire and greed of its rulers. Prisco's answers will display the benefits of orderly and safe life of the Roman Empire to the east, and the benefits of the law that governs the lives of all.

Eventually, Priscus tells us that his party has started crying at the memory of his life in the empire. Maybe he a bit 'stretched this conclusion, but - overall - we have the impression that the story is true. That is, that Prisco has highlighted the two sides of the issue and their relative merits although, of course, he was on the side of the empire.

of us who live "on the side of the Empire" we can understand the position of Prisco. The sheer horror to contemplate a world without laws, a world where you did not secure protection, you do not have a clearly defined role, you do not have the rules, you do not have a future that does not depend on the circumstances or the wishes of those who are more powerful than you .

This same feeling of sheer horror we read the "Emergency" by Neil Strauss. It 's a book that describes the author's experience with the various groups of " survivalist" (I do not know how best to translate "survivalist," except as sopravvivenzisti, which is too bad)

Strauss himself, American journalist Born in Chicago, is attracted to these groups, he feels insecure in a country, the United States, which become increasingly oppressive and dictatorial. So, you buy a passport from a remote island, joining a group of quirky, where he learned to shoot, to live in the forest, kill a goat, skinned and butchered, and other little things like that.

Worthy of note in the book, is the experience of Strauss with the "B-people" where "B" stands for "Billionaire", or billionaires. These all have the same problems, but more varied methods of solution. For example, Strauss shows us that many of them have got the certificate of flight and take a plane ready to leave to leave a country that could fall prey to the chaos at any time.

Strauss's book is interesting and well written, although eventually enter into excessive detail and is a bit 'boring. Even the "instructions for use in emergencies" that appear in the form of cartoons interspersed with the text, frankly, is not that they are the best. Know, for example, as it turns a credit card in a blade to cut the throat of your neighbor does not seem particularly useful.

Apart from this, the overall impression it leaves you with the book is a descent into barbarism. These people who is trained to shoot to cut up animals, and live in the woods takes a commitment that stems from a "world model" which - frankly - it's hard to share.

It may be that our fate, but on this I feel much closer to the Byzantine Prisco out to him that he had chosen life in the reign of Attila.

Van Cymbidium Go On The Ground

ASPO 9 / 27-29 April / invitation

The ninth international conference of ASPO will be held on 27/29 April in Brussels, Belgium. For complete information, visit www.aspo9.be . Nel seguito, il testo dell'annuncio in Inglese. 

_____________________________________

Dear Sir/Madam,

ASPO Belgium and Peakoil Nederland have the pleasure to invite you to the 9th International Conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, which will take place 27-29 April 2011 in Brussels, Belgium

with extensions at the European Parliament (early May)

Walloon Parliament (26 April)



Join experts and speakers from around the world to discuss the future of fossil fuels, effects of high oil prices on the economy and agriculture, renewable energy support policies, and many more topics related to ‘European Energy Policy in an era of expensive energy’.

· Philippe Henry - Belgian Minister of Environment, Spatial Planning and Mobility for Wallonia



· Dr. Ir. Jean-Marie Masset - former Total Senior VP Geoscience

· Prof. Dr. Jean-Pascal van Ypersele - Professor at Catholic University of Leuven and Vice-Chair IPCC



· Prof. Dr. Paul Stevens - Chatham House, London



· Dr. Wes Jackson - President of the Land Institute, Kansas, USA



Click here for the Full List of Experts and Speakers

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Register before 15 march to benefit from a 100 euro Early Bird Discount

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I look forward to meeting you in Brussels, Belgium on April 27-29, 2011.

Patrick Brocorens, President ASPO Belgium

Université de Mons - UMONS
Tel. : +32-(0)65.37.38.67; e-mail: patrick.brocorens@umons.ac.be

www.aspo.be




The 9th ASPO Conference is realized with support from:

· Brussels-Capital Region

· The University of Mons

· Wallonia

· Walloon Parliament

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Who pays the electric car? WTI Brent

Recently, the Energy Authority has taken a position on the encouragement of the electric car, in a paper on the prospects sent to the committees of the House Transportation and Production Activities. A summary of this position, you can read here .

In memory recalls the Authority facilities have already been introduced: removal of some regulatory restrictions to allow refills in private places, introducing ad-hoc fees, promotion of pilot projects to be recharged in public places. But it is necessary that the development del settore avvenga «nel pieno rispetto delle regole di mercato e della concorrenza, senza distorsioni nei prezzi dell'elettricità, evitando che il finanziamento delle azioni di promozione dei veicoli elettrici gravi sulla spesa della globalità dei consumatori finali».

Io condivido questa impostazione, ma per motivi in parte diversi da quelli dell’Autorità. La crisi economica strutturale che stiamo vivendo richiede infatti una forte selezione delle politiche di finanziamento pubblico, individuando attentamente i settori strategici da sostenere. In altre parole non è più possibile utilizzare la leva fiscale o tariffaria indiscriminatamente come in passato, ma solo definendo precise priorità.

Sulla bill of citizens already borne the costs of renewable energy incentives that are in my view the first priority in the energy sector. In the field of mobility, as I have explained many times on this blog (eg here or here), means of transportation that provide the specific lower power and lower specific costs are the modern tramway and they should be focused on policies for public support.

Moreover, the problems arising from the electric car market conditions and not from a lack of incentive. The investment costs are still too high, the supply of energy is not easy and especially the problema non ancora risolto e di difficile soluzione della ridotta autonomia, ne limitano quasi totalmente la commercializzazione. Di fatto i consumatori continuano ad orientarsi sui modelli tradizionali e non è certo l’installazione di qualche colonnina di ricarica che potrà risolvere questi vincoli strutturali.

E nella prospettiva di una crescita più accentuata dei prezzi petroliferi, i modelli di auto maggiormente competitivi mi appaiono oggi quelli che utilizzano carburanti alternativi al petrolio. Il prezzo di acquisto di un auto a metano è nettamente inferiore a quello dell’auto elettrica, il prezzo dell’energia (circa la metà di un auto a benzina o diesel) è paragonabile (circa 4 euro ogni cento chilometri) con quello necessario a percorrere gli stessi chilometri con l’elettricità (vedi questo articolo ). Ma soprattutto, è il valore dell’investimento in un auto a metano che appare molto più elevato in relazione alla possibilità di utilizzare un sistema di rifornimento, quello dei distributori, che rappresenta il vero fattore vincente dell’auto convenzionale rispetto a quella elettrica.

Ma anche se in futuro emergessero soluzioni tecnologiche in grado di far superare all’auto elettrica l’attuale gap competitivo rispetto ai modelli convenzionali, rimane come per l’auto a motore endotermico, l’insuperabile problema della disponibilità di risorse, limiting factor for expanding global private mobility. Look at this last chart that I extracted from the World Energy Outlook 2010 International Energy Agency.
In 2035 it is expected a doubling of private mobility in the world. Although by that time, so absurd, it manages to convert its entire fleet to the global electric drive (thereby providing a theoretical halving of primary energy consumption), total energy savings achieved would be completely negated by the exponential growth of cars in circulation.

Orlando Fl Glory Ho;es

off uphill

who follows the trend of oil prices si sarà accorto che da qualche mese i futures trattati sul mercato di Londra (Brent) hanno superato i cento dollari al barile e superato in salita quelli trattati sul mercato di New York (WTI), oggi di poco superiori ai 90 dollari al barile.

In questo articolo sul Sole 24 Ore, Andrea Franceschi si esercita in un’analisi del fenomeno che tira in ballo vari fattori, tra cui l’immancabile speculazione. Ma i giornalisti economici italiani assomigliano molto a degli struzzi australiani e preferiscono spesso nascondere la testa nella sabbia, trascurando l’aspetto fisico del problema e cioè il rapido esaurimento del petrolio di riferimento per il Brent, cioè quello prodotto dai giacimenti del Mare del Nord.

Il picco di questo petrolio c’è stato intorno al 2000 e negli ultimi anni il calo ha assunto proporzioni impressionanti. Nel grafico allegato, estratto da The Oil Drum, è possibile osservare il crollo della produzione negli ultimi due anni: Il Mare del Nord, che comprende “United Kingdom Offshore, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands Offshore, and Germany Offshore” ha perso il 20% della sua produzione in 24 mesi. La produzione è diminuita di 600.000 barili al giorno in questo periodo.”

Da rozzo conoscitore della teoria economica, quale io sono, mi viene da pensare che forse un calo dell’offerta così consistente, qualche influenza sui prezzi dovrebbe averla.
E infatti, leggiamo Italy on Wall Street, "there 'who, like Chris Cook, a former International Petroleum Exchange, pay attention to changes in production in the North Sea, fell by double digits in four years. New exploration permits will be continuously advanced in the North Sea so 'as new discoveries are made but in general, Cook concluded, nothing can' change course to the decline in production. "

The moral economy: the dynamics of supply and demand 'offer is "fundamental" in the pricing and I can not close the comment without observed an article on this blog that makes this clear correlation between the trend in oil prices and produzione economica (PIL). Ciò ci fa ulteriormente riflettere sul fatto che l’avanzare dell’attuale ripresa economica globale sarà accompagnata inevitabilmente da una continua crescita dei prezzi del barile che, oltre un certo livello, innescherà una nuova spirale recessiva.

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Remove Before Flight Bag

Alas, yet the buffalo abiotic oil

Arriva da "ClimateMonitor" un commento di Roberto Vacca alle presentazioni di Ugo Bardi e di Kjell Aleklett al Festival della Scienza di Roma sul Petrolio.

Purtroppo, Vacca non sembra avere altri argomenti che una serie di banalità e di errori puri e semplici. Per prima cosa, riparte con l'idea del "petrolio abiotico" che esisterebbe in quantità enormi a grandi profondità. This idea, a total hoax, had already pulled out in 2007 with a shameful article on "Il Sole 24 Ore. " The beauty is that

Vacca tells us that this idea was "largely ignored by experts and decision makers ". Eh, well, that certainly is ignored, and there are good reasons for this. Can be found, for example, in this post by Ugo Bardi .

Vacca withdraws out the history of the Club of Rome, "apparently referring to the legend of" errors "associated with the report entitled" The Limits to Growth "in 1972. Pretesu errors, since an analysis of the publication did not find any significant error. This thing I've told more Sometimes, for instance here (in 2003) and more recently here. But if you do not want to listen to Ugo Bardi on this point, read for example Charles Hall and John Day in The New Scientist . One of the many that break down the legend. This

to name but a few of the elementary errors of the cow's head. The rest, then, does not deserve is simply a series of platitudes. Vacca demolishes a "Hubbert's model" that has been invented and that he has little or no relation to the serious work of competent people like Kjell Aleklett who presented his results at the Festival of Science in Rome. For a recent discussion on the limits and usefulness of the Hubbert model, you can look at this article Ugo Bardi on "The Oil Drum."

In short, the scientific debate, everyone is free to express their feelings, but you know what you speak and to know we need to look over. To improvise experts could always make a bad impression. This happens with Roberto Vacca is improvised petroleum geologist. It happens also in the field of climate at the site " climatemonitor ," which published the article by Vacca and whose handlers have improvised climatologists. (In this regard, see, for example, the sites " climate-changing" and "Cassandra effect").

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The end of oil or the end of the alarm?

Written by Roberto Vacca 28 - January - 2011

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on gratuity and irrelevant ideas of Swift et al. related to peak oil and its depletion, carry two pages from my book SAVE THE NEXT DECADE, just published by Garzanti. No other comment is in order.

In Chapter 12 of my PATATRAC already cited, illustrate the experiences, the reasons and studies that suggest that grande profondità esistano sulla Terra riserve di idrocarburi minerali di molte volte maggiori di quelle attualmente stimate in meno di 200 miliardi di tonnellate di petrolio. I risultati ottenuti in questo campo vengono largamente ignorati da esperti e decisori.

Al contrario: continua a vociferare una scuola di pensiero secondo la quale sarebbe dimostrato che le riserve petrolifere del mondo sono inferiori alle stime correnti e sono destinate a essere esaurite in breve tempo. La proiezione è analoga a quella presentata nel citato primo rapporto al Club di Roma sui Limiti dello Sviluppo, ma viene ammantata di giustificazioni teoriche elaborate e poco sussistenti.

La storia cominciò negli anni Cinquanta with the studies of M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, principal consultant for Shell Development Company. The scenario development implies that once peaked in oil production, would begin a downward trend until exhaustion. Hubbert another rule deduced from observations made in the graphs of production from the beginning of exploitation to the exhaustion of individual oil wells and entire fields containing various wells. The total amount extracted from the beginning up to the maximum of production would be equal to the reserves remaining at the time of that maximum.

The rule is proved valid in many cases, but Hubbert deduced its universal validity for each oil-producing region and also for the world's oil production.

Some called "Hubbert's postulate that" equality mentioned because that is the result of empirical considerations and identification of physical mechanisms of deterministic and well known. There are many factors that influence the rate of extraction of oil from a well or an entire region and also the amount of resources invested in exploration and new drilling. Among them:

• technology available, the greater or lesser ease of extraction, the depth of the deposits
• the barrel crude oil prices and forecasts of future
• the financial situations of the oil companies
• the international political situation (the fear of conflict leads governments to increase the reserves)
• the economic situation of the countries where are the fields
• opposition from environmental groups to new drilling or extraction continued at the same - especially offshore, after the disaster of the platform of British Petroleum in the Gulf of Mexico. In Chapter 13 I analyze in detail the incident.

should be then taken into account four key factors.

The first is that there are no data on reserves not yet proven: they could also be huge, consisting of crude oil of high quality and easy accessibility.

The second is that there are procedures for determining the total time of extraction (and hence the depletion) of a field. If the deposits of crude oil were containers with a given vertical dimension h from the bottom of which the oil flows by gravity, we would know very well that the initial rate of spillage would

and that would decrease linearly as a function of time to zero. There is no peak production. Crude oil, however, often coexist with sandstone and die between the interstices of the material, it is necessary to pump it also experiencing a strong impedance, or detach it with steam at high temperature. The situation in each field may change for various reasons: it is difficult to predict.

The third factor cited is the presumed existence of large primary deposits very deep.

The fourth note is the existence of huge deposits of heavy crude oil in oil shale (oil shale). The extraction is expensive and its feasibility depends on the price level reached by the crude markets. For several years, however, in Stati Uniti vengono estratte dagli scisti bituminosi grandi quantità di gas naturale. In conclusione non è giustificato il timore di un veloce e inaspettato esaurimento della produzione di greggio. I problemi energetici, industriali, socio economici che determinano la domanda e quelli ambientali sono strettamente addentellati fra loro. Possono essere affrontati solo in modo integrato nei modi, nelle tecniche e nella cooperazione fra tutti gli organismi e le persone coinvolte.

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NB: qui i pdf di due interventi del prof. Vacca su questo argomento.

• ENORMI QUANTITA’ DI IDROCARBURI MINERALI (DI ORIGINE NON BIOLOGICA) A GRANDE PROFONDITA’ (Luglio 2007)
• TESORO NASCOSTO: ENORMI QUANTITA’ DI IDROCARBURI MINERALI (DI ORIGINE NON BIOLOGICA) A GRANDE PROFONDITA’ (Agosto 2007)