Arriva da "ClimateMonitor" un commento di Roberto Vacca alle presentazioni di Ugo Bardi e di Kjell Aleklett al Festival della Scienza di Roma sul Petrolio.
Purtroppo, Vacca non sembra avere altri argomenti che una serie di banalità e di errori puri e semplici. Per prima cosa, riparte con l'idea del "petrolio abiotico" che esisterebbe in quantità enormi a grandi profondità. This idea, a total hoax, had already pulled out in 2007 with a shameful article on "Il Sole 24 Ore. " The beauty is that
Vacca tells us that this idea was "largely ignored by experts and decision makers ". Eh, well, that certainly is ignored, and there are good reasons for this. Can be found, for example, in this post by Ugo Bardi .
Vacca withdraws out the history of the Club of Rome, "apparently referring to the legend of" errors "associated with the report entitled" The Limits to Growth "in 1972. Pretesu errors, since an analysis of the publication did not find any significant error. This thing I've told more Sometimes, for instance here (in 2003) and more recently here. But if you do not want to listen to Ugo Bardi on this point, read for example Charles Hall and John Day in The New Scientist . One of the many that break down the legend. This
to name but a few of the elementary errors of the cow's head. The rest, then, does not deserve is simply a series of platitudes. Vacca demolishes a "Hubbert's model" that has been invented and that he has little or no relation to the serious work of competent people like Kjell Aleklett who presented his results at the Festival of Science in Rome. For a recent discussion on the limits and usefulness of the Hubbert model, you can look at this article Ugo Bardi on "The Oil Drum."
In short, the scientific debate, everyone is free to express their feelings, but you know what you speak and to know we need to look over. To improvise experts could always make a bad impression. This happens with Roberto Vacca is improvised petroleum geologist. It happens also in the field of climate at the site " climatemonitor ," which published the article by Vacca and whose handlers have improvised climatologists. (In this regard, see, for example, the sites " climate-changing" and "Cassandra effect").
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Purtroppo, Vacca non sembra avere altri argomenti che una serie di banalità e di errori puri e semplici. Per prima cosa, riparte con l'idea del "petrolio abiotico" che esisterebbe in quantità enormi a grandi profondità. This idea, a total hoax, had already pulled out in 2007 with a shameful article on "Il Sole 24 Ore. " The beauty is that
Vacca tells us that this idea was "largely ignored by experts and decision makers ". Eh, well, that certainly is ignored, and there are good reasons for this. Can be found, for example, in this post by Ugo Bardi .
Vacca withdraws out the history of the Club of Rome, "apparently referring to the legend of" errors "associated with the report entitled" The Limits to Growth "in 1972. Pretesu errors, since an analysis of the publication did not find any significant error. This thing I've told more Sometimes, for instance here (in 2003) and more recently here. But if you do not want to listen to Ugo Bardi on this point, read for example Charles Hall and John Day in The New Scientist . One of the many that break down the legend. This
to name but a few of the elementary errors of the cow's head. The rest, then, does not deserve is simply a series of platitudes. Vacca demolishes a "Hubbert's model" that has been invented and that he has little or no relation to the serious work of competent people like Kjell Aleklett who presented his results at the Festival of Science in Rome. For a recent discussion on the limits and usefulness of the Hubbert model, you can look at this article Ugo Bardi on "The Oil Drum."
In short, the scientific debate, everyone is free to express their feelings, but you know what you speak and to know we need to look over. To improvise experts could always make a bad impression. This happens with Roberto Vacca is improvised petroleum geologist. It happens also in the field of climate at the site " climatemonitor ," which published the article by Vacca and whose handlers have improvised climatologists. (In this regard, see, for example, the sites " climate-changing" and "Cassandra effect").
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The end of oil or the end of the alarm?
28 - January - 2011
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on gratuity and irrelevant ideas of Swift et al. related to peak oil and its depletion, carry two pages from my book SAVE THE NEXT DECADE, just published by Garzanti. No other comment is in order.
In Chapter 12 of my PATATRAC already cited, illustrate the experiences, the reasons and studies that suggest that grande profondità esistano sulla Terra riserve di idrocarburi minerali di molte volte maggiori di quelle attualmente stimate in meno di 200 miliardi di tonnellate di petrolio. I risultati ottenuti in questo campo vengono largamente ignorati da esperti e decisori.
Al contrario: continua a vociferare una scuola di pensiero secondo la quale sarebbe dimostrato che le riserve petrolifere del mondo sono inferiori alle stime correnti e sono destinate a essere esaurite in breve tempo. La proiezione è analoga a quella presentata nel citato primo rapporto al Club di Roma sui Limiti dello Sviluppo, ma viene ammantata di giustificazioni teoriche elaborate e poco sussistenti.
La storia cominciò negli anni Cinquanta with the studies of M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, principal consultant for Shell Development Company. The scenario development implies that once peaked in oil production, would begin a downward trend until exhaustion. Hubbert another rule deduced from observations made in the graphs of production from the beginning of exploitation to the exhaustion of individual oil wells and entire fields containing various wells. The total amount extracted from the beginning up to the maximum of production would be equal to the reserves remaining at the time of that maximum.
The rule is proved valid in many cases, but Hubbert deduced its universal validity for each oil-producing region and also for the world's oil production.
Some called "Hubbert's postulate that" equality mentioned because that is the result of empirical considerations and identification of physical mechanisms of deterministic and well known. There are many factors that influence the rate of extraction of oil from a well or an entire region and also the amount of resources invested in exploration and new drilling. Among them:
- technology available, the greater or lesser ease of extraction, the depth of the deposits
- the barrel crude oil prices and forecasts of future
- the financial situations of the oil companies
- the international political situation (the fear of conflict leads governments to increase the reserves)
- the economic situation of the countries where are the fields
- opposition from environmental groups to new drilling or extraction continued at the same - especially offshore, after the disaster of the platform of British Petroleum in the Gulf of Mexico. In Chapter 13 I analyze in detail the incident.
The first is that there are no data on reserves not yet proven: they could also be huge, consisting of crude oil of high quality and easy accessibility.
The second is that there are procedures for determining the total time of extraction (and hence the depletion) of a field. If the deposits of crude oil were containers with a given vertical dimension h from the bottom of which the oil flows by gravity, we would know very well that the initial rate of spillage would
and that would decrease linearly as a function of time to zero. There is no peak production. Crude oil, however, often coexist with sandstone and die between the interstices of the material, it is necessary to pump it also experiencing a strong impedance, or detach it with steam at high temperature. The situation in each field may change for various reasons: it is difficult to predict.
The third factor cited is the presumed existence of large primary deposits very deep.
The fourth note is the existence of huge deposits of heavy crude oil in oil shale (oil shale). The extraction is expensive and its feasibility depends on the price level reached by the crude markets. For several years, however, in Stati Uniti vengono estratte dagli scisti bituminosi grandi quantità di gas naturale. In conclusione non è giustificato il timore di un veloce e inaspettato esaurimento della produzione di greggio. I problemi energetici, industriali, socio economici che determinano la domanda e quelli ambientali sono strettamente addentellati fra loro. Possono essere affrontati solo in modo integrato nei modi, nelle tecniche e nella cooperazione fra tutti gli organismi e le persone coinvolte.
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NB: qui i pdf di due interventi del prof. Vacca su questo argomento.
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