Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Wife Wanfs Black Baby

sensational, gasoline prices depend on oil prices

Combined with higher oil prices, gasoline prices have started to grow, and with them, re-appeared the inevitable protests of consumers and motorists against an alleged speculation of oil companies.
I have already explained in a previous article that these protests are largely groundless. In fact, as can be seen in the first graph, content analysis available on the site of "Banks, Savings Investment and Trading" on this address, there is an almost perfect correlation between the barrel price trend (in euro) and fuel prices. This close connection has come loose only during the first tumultuous growth of oil prices in 2008, when the rising price of a barrel did not correspond a proportional increase in pump price of fuel. The phenomenon can be read better in the second graph extracted from the same source of the first to address this , which shows the relationship between gasoline prices and WTI in euro. There is a phase of lower values \u200b\u200bin 2008 due to higher oil prices on growth than those of petrol and a phase of "compensation" later which notes the opposite phenomenon. Then, by the end of 2009, there is an almost complete correspondence between increases in the prices of two products. This dismantling the conspiracy theory that denies the correlation between the prices with the argument that the current dynamics of gasoline prices is different from that of the first period of growth in crude oil prices.
The strange thing is that the same mechanism seems to have occurred for the prices of other products dependent on oil prices, as in the case of foodstuffs. In the last graph, extracted from the blog of Ma rco Pagani you can see a similar trend, with prices of foodstuffs in the first phase do not follow proportionately with the surge in oil prices, and then align almost perfectly with the dynamic oil prices.
It would appear that in the first instance there is a kind of inelasticity of commodity prices in relation to sudden surges in oil prices, a kind of "surprise" that is then slowly reabsorbed in a realignment of the evolutionary dynamics of prices.

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