Among the sacred principles (of the left of the bipolar etc..) And the prosaic political science (elections to do / not do alliances to do / not do ...) there should be some remnant of analysis.
What is this 'third pole' in the making? Beyond the games side, there are similarities between what they represent (or want to represent) Fini, Casini and Williams (and the various Lombardo, Poli Bortone, Miccichè etc..)? It can take up much space? There are few things that the circulation analysis tend to overlook that and instead, in my opinion, are robust. Now advance the conclusion del ragionamento. Il terzo polo neo-centrista, se c’è o ci sarà, è essenzialmente il “partito del sud”. Questo partito è in incubazione da tempo, almeno dalle europee del ’99. Ed è sorto per reazione all’asse a traino leghista assunto dal governo Berlusconi. I primi sintomi si sono evidenziati in Sicilia, con lo sfaldamento del Pdl regionale. L’ondata astensionista che ha colpito il Pdl nel sud alle europee del ’99 è stata la prima manifestazione di una insofferenza ancora latente, ma profonda. Alle regionali essa si è nuovamente manifestata. In Campania (come nel Lazio) con le lotte intestine al Pdl e con un risultato al di sotto delle aspettative. In Puglia con il ‘lasciapassare’ concesso a Vendola (altro che ‘narrazione’) dall’Udc e dalla Poli Bortone (cioè da un pezzo di An renitente alla leva Pdl). Sono tutti segnali che convergono nel mostrare come sia venuto rapidamente frantumandosi l’investimento fiduciario del Sud appannaggio del Pdl berlusconiamo.
A questo proposito è bene ricordare alcuni dati di struttura (che ho esposto a più riprese in diversi saggi su “Il Mulino”):
Le elezioni, dal ’46 ad oggi, sono state sempre decise dal voto del Sud. E’ nel Sud che i diversi governi (e le forze politiche ad essi associate) hanno tratto le risorse strategiche di consenso. Nel ’48 la Dc sfondò al Nord, ma la paid in '53 with the repudiation of the South 'swindle law'. In the 80's intra-penta-party competition between the PSI and DC was the conquest of the South as a theater More generally, the Democrats held the Republican government 'meridionalizzandosi'. And the League, with the collapse of the sub-culture of white triveneto eventually emerged as a reaction to this state of affairs. One could go on ... but suffice it to recall that the rule is proposed with the second republic. Berlusconi in '94 invented a gimmick to unite the north and south: the dual alliance (the North Pole of Freedom: Fi-League), the south pole of good governance (Fi-An). Vince but then can not govern because the League resents the privileged axis between Fi and An. In the South, however, resources are frozen in the center by voting Pattisti and popularity. The Olive Tree wins in '96, not only for the defection of the Lega Nord, but it wins significant part of the South: Campania in the first place. In 2001 Berlusconi restore the axis with the league, but wins so far. The South, with the exception of Sicily, not follow, because the olive tree remains strong. The entire 2001-2006 term is tainted by the clash between the wings of the coalition: the League on the one hand, An el'Udc other. A sign that there is no balance and amalgamation between the North and South because if the League is the North, the UDC and AN are the North South want hands-free protection and state support for the South. Fi seems to succeed in the South, only interlocutor as the criminal economy (and this explains the case and communication with Sicily Dell'Utri, co-founder of True Fi and PDL). But further than this difficulty. In 2006, the center-left format Union revenge, albeit of limited scale. The difference is still the South, where they move on the three regions 'poised' and undulating: Sardinia and the Abruzzi, Calabria. While holding, albeit with some signs of slowing, Campania (and Lazio). Again, these three regions make a difference in 2008. Back to the right, along with the conquest of Campania, where the flakes' system power 'post-Christian Democrat maintained by Bassolino. The growth of the Northern League is matched by meridionalizzazione of the PDL, thanks to the votes of An.
In the south the movement of votes to take place following the migration of commuters and the political class. That is, mediators 'exchange vote'. So it has always been even if there are episodes of 'popular uprising', with the voters that drive the political class (they were emblematic cases with Orlando of Palermo and Catania with White, but also, albeit small in size, also the case Vendola is an episode of ...). The center-left has 'taken' by the South attraction relevant parts of the political class and their personal following. Incidentally, the choice of Veltroni (with the defenestration of De Mita and the freeze in hospital at Bassolino) favored detachment. The fight with D'Alema - a politician, as he professes, re-naturalizzatosi the south - this is a moment of fracture.
current events, with the split with Fini, show that you have reopened the question of the South The third prong is an attempt to offer a self-aggregation 'center' of the political classes until now oscillating between the left and right . The electorate and the Southern society are tearing the pact that gave birth to the PDL. We no longer hear represented / guarantee. Could refasten to an alliance with the right only if a substantial downsizing of the pivotal power in the league. But this seems very difficult. Not by chance Fini, Casini and Williams have in common a point in the program. Even more than questions of constitutional law is the aversion to federalism in sauce lego-Berlusconi to join us.
But here is the deal of the Democratic Party. If you want to win elections and return to the government to resume the south, but for how things are made can not do that at the price of an alliance with the third prong. In spite of what they think the 'great and pure, bipolar' our own, D'Alema is right. There is no alternative. A self veltroniana reissue of 2008 may do so. Even less of a remake of the Union. What is surprising in the attitude of Bersani (while conceding that the dilemmas are different and the solutions very random) move is the wavering between the League and the third prong. Are not summable, even in a minimal transitional government.
report a further paradox. The leader of the third pole, at least two Fini and Casini, comes from Bologna. They were born in the central north and follow the South Something like that happens to Bersani, which as we know, was overwhelmingly endorsed in the primaries in the South, not in the homeland (Emilia). Strange paradoxes geo-Population.
Già che ci siamo un appunto su Bologna e l’evocata politica di larghe intese civiche. La partita politica, come richiamato, si gioca da Roma in giù. Il centro starà come è, cosiccome il Nord. E’ al sud che passa il cambiamento. Perciò Bologna (e l’Emilia) questa volta non potrà anticipare alcunché. Campagnoli fa bene a richiamare la necessità dell’analisi politica. Ma l’analisi è questa. Inutile ingrandire il discorso. L’allargamento del centro-sinistra è, al massimo, un problema locale. Non anticipa nessuna linea nazionale. A Bologna, come nel nord, il terzo polo si tirerà dietro ben poca gente, mentre al sud potrebbe catalizzare ceto politico e followed elections. The problem is essentially bolognese election than Guazzaloca and do as much of the consensus that natural longing to throw it back. The Civic Party no longer exists. One party after Corticelli Right. The UDC is again itself. At the municipal Guazzaloca took 12%. Now I do not think (surveys in hand) go above 5%. An independent third prong should not be more than 8%. The same amount sold for the local hardcore leftism: new-fangled - Favia - and planting more dated - as in Monteventi, Pasquino, Tedder, Earth etc.. The task of the PD is able to scratch something and left something in the middle. What it can do better if you are on the bar, without stretchers. There remain many friends of tressette top coat. I believe that we have no alternative to join the wagon and their bargaining power is the extent of relevance. Let's see how you put. For now still conclude with an observation. Cevenini seems the most aware of the stage and tactical moves with a grace that few professional politicians get it. Yours sincerely.
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