On Site Authority for Electricity and Gas is available this document, entitled "Preliminary study of feasibility for the creation of a new European oil market," commissioned by the Ministry of Economic Development to identify possible solutions to the problem of levels inadequate investment and the instability of oil prices. The Italian government's position is known: the problem of availability and price of oil is determined solely by a malfunction of market mechanisms, in particular by an unspecified financial speculation, and therefore its resolution can not be more that the change in the oil market mechanisms that determine the current tensions. Hence, the Authority commissioned the study.
But we try to summarize the contents of the report that for those who were willing, I recommend reading in full, as it offers several insights.
The first part is a long discussion of the reasons that determined the dynamics of oil prices in recent years. Nothing seems to confirm a role of financial speculation : "Major institutions like the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission, the British Treasury and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States said the steep increase oil prices in the first half of 2008 on the basis of fundamental oil market , given the lack of empirical evidence demonstrating a significant effect on prices due to financial speculation, "..." all the statistical analysis conducted so far have not demonstrated a causal relationship between the increase in transaction volumes in the markets in oil futures and spot price volatility .
short, seem to confirm our analysis on the correlation price - economic dynamics - application report - supply of oil ( here) and buffalo billion barrels of virtual ( here).
Yet, paradoxically, by taking the opposite view on the pretext of economic isolation, the report does not exclude the existence of bubbles associated with speculation.
After an interesting analysis of the characteristics of existing oil markets, the study then examines the evolution scenarios of supply and demand of oil. With reference to the 2008 WEO of the International Energy Agency, states that "The estimated reserves of crude oil are still considerable and are not a prelude to a scarcity of resources in the medium term." There would be only the problem of financing costs investment needed to extract higher other eight trillion barrels of available resources between conventional and unconventional. It almost seems to see oil gushing from the pages of the report.
course, the study's authors even consider ASPO on current forecasts of peak oil, but they could at least be more cautious updating the study to the 2010 WEO, as we wrote recently , has already significantly reduced production forecasts for 2008, noting the decline of existing fields and develop and that the hopes of a future increase in production is now reserved for expensive (in terms of economic and energy) and non-conventional crude ambitious as unlikely new discoveries that are able to reverse a trend of opposite sign which has become the 80s.
After the analysis of some proposals for reducing price volatility in oil markets, including that of ENI in the past we have commented here , and the U.S. reform the oil markets (which has not had any effect on price dynamics) study finally concludes with the hypothesis that Italy would propose to the European Community, namely the creation of a new instrument for long-term contract in the oil market. "
In a nutshell, the proposal envisages the creation of a regulated trading platform di contratti standardizzati di lungo termine, aventi a oggetto il diritto alla consegna fisica di greggio, in cui un’istituzione pubblica svolga funzioni di controparte centrale in grado di offrire garanzie di lungo periodo.
In parole più semplici, si tratterebbe di creare una nuova borsa petrolifera europea (si propone l’Olanda come luogo di consegna fisica del greggio trattato), in cui un’entità pubblica (controparte centrale) si assumerebbe i rischi di contratti di lungo termine (2025 e oltre), sia dal lato della domanda, garantendo un prezzo certo di consegna del petrolio alla scadenza, sia dal lato dell’offerta, selezionando gli operatori più affidabili alla consegna e assumendo gli oneri per l’acquisto the product on the market in case of insolvency of the oil producer. Intention of the proponents, this new architecture of the oil market is expected to provide certainty for investment in new oil projects defusing tensions between demand and supply source of price volatility.
In my opinion this is an academic building and unrealistic, not real possibilities of implementation because it will be increasingly difficult to find manufacturers that could provide such long-term contracts, because the costs to the community are likely to be large and the other European countries have guidelines exactly the opposite of this hypothesis. But mainly because si cerca di aggredire il problema della disponibilità di petrolio dal lato di un’offerta sempre più rigida invece che da quello della domanda.
Bisognerebbe, in altri termini, porre in atto politiche attive per ridurre la richiesta di petrolio delle società occidentali, principalmente diminuendo la domanda di mobilità privata, che consuma più del 60% del petrolio importato. Questo consentirebbe una maggiore durata delle risorse residue e nello stesso tempo un contenimento dei prezzi non conseguente all’alternanza di cicli economici espansivi e recessivi che rischiano di caratterizzare il prossimo futuro. Ma il governo italiano non ci pensa nemmeno, preferisce irresponsabilmente dare la colpa di tutto alla speculazione finanziaria.
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